Frederick Gaudreau vs Jordan Staal
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jordan Staal holds a +12.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Gaudreau on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Gaudreau wins 42.9% vs left-shot opponents — Staal shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs Staal 54.6% (-12.2%)
H2H factor
Gaudreau leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Staal 92.0%
Defensive zone
Staal 53.7%
Neutral zone
Staal 78.9%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 82.9%
17.1%
82.9%
Gaudreau
Staal
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Gaudreau
Staal
Last 10: Gaudreau 6-4 Staal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Staal
2
3
Gaudreau
Staal
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
0
Gaudreau
Staal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
3
1
Gaudreau
Staal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
Staal
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (389)
56.1% (955)
-11.1%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
66.9% (142)
-35.1%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (125)
43.0% (242)
-5.4%
On power play, Staal has a +35.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Staal shoots left. Gaudreau is 42.9% vs left-shot opponents (427).
Gaudreau shoots right. Staal is 65.3% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
Staal
Home
42.6% (277)
55.4% (663)
Away
42.9% (259)
54.4% (676)
By Period
Gaudreau
Staal
P1
43.8%
55.1%
P2
44.8%
54.7%
P3
39.2%
53.9%
Final 5 min
46.7%
57.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
42.7%
Staal
46.0%▼
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:31 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:48 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 16:35 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 03:22 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 15:25 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |