Frederick Gaudreau vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Gaudreau wins 42.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 43.9% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 97.2%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 52.9%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 88.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 72.8%
27.2%
72.8%
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
0
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
2
0
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
1
0
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.0% (389)
50.0% (992)
-5.0%
Power Play
31.8% (22)
64.9% (148)
-33.1%
Penalty Kill
37.6% (125)
34.4% (32)
+3.2%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +33.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Gaudreau is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (109).
Gaudreau shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Home
42.6% (277)
53.3% (591)
Away
42.9% (259)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
P1
43.8%
49.9%
P2
44.8%
53.2%
P3
39.2%
50.8%
Final 5 min
46.7%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
42.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:27 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:50 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:19 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:55 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |