Frederick Gaudreau vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Frederick Gaudreau holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 48.6% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 23-19 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 73.6%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 61.5%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
23
(42 meetings)
19
23
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Last 10: Gaudreau 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
7
11
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
9
8
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
4
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,745)
46.1% (11,218)
+2.6%
Power Play
53.9% (219)
53.3% (1,412)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
46.6% (789)
42.8% (502)
+3.8%
On penalty kill, Gaudreau has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Gaudreau is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,280).
Gaudreau shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Home
49.2% (2,437)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
47.8% (2,316)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
P1
49.7%
47.4%
P2
47.3%
46.6%
P3
49.1%
46.1%
OT
36.7%
48.4%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
48.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 16:27 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:50 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:19 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 17:55 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 02:41 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:10 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 06:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:17 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:03 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:17 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |