Frederick Gaudreau vs Nathan MacKinnon
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Frederick Gaudreau holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 49.9% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 78.8%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 56.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 57.2%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 64.7%
35.3%
64.7%
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (408)
45.5% (1,190)
+3.5%
Power Play
68.0% (25)
56.4% (94)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (114)
40.0% (30)
+9.1%
On power play, Gaudreau has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Gaudreau is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (130).
Gaudreau shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Home
50.8% (319)
47.8% (670)
Away
48.7% (228)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
P1
53.4%
45.3%
P2
47.4%
48.5%
P3
50.0%
45.0%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.0%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
49.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2024 | 2 | 18:40 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 8, 2024 | 2 | 16:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 8, 2024 | 1 | 10:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 16:59 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |