Frederick Gaudreau vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Gaudreau 48.4% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 62.8%
Defensive zone
Gaudreau 79.3%
Neutral zone
Gaudreau 58.9%
Result
Frederick Gaudreau favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Last 10: Gaudreau 3-7 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
9
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
12 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gaudreau
2
0
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.2% (858)
49.2% (1,266)
+0.0%
Power Play
39.0% (41)
54.9% (193)
-15.9%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (198)
49.1% (55)
-3.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Gaudreau is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (278).
Gaudreau shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
Home
47.1% (546)
50.9% (740)
Away
49.4% (551)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Gaudreau
MacKinnon
P1
46.8%
50.9%
P2
46.8%
51.8%
P3
51.1%
47.1%
OT
40.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
50.4%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Gaudreau
34.0%▼
44.5%
48.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:19 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 2 | 02:41 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 19:45 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 16:10 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 06:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2025 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 3 | 09:17 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 15:41 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 13:03 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 07:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 18:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:17 | Defensive | Frederick Gaudreau |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:10 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:29 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 13:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 9, 2025 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Frederick Gaudreau |