Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Vilardi on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Vilardi 49.6% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 54.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 63.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 58.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.3%
41.7%
58.3%
Vilardi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Vilardi
O'Reilly
Last 8: Vilardi 4-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Vilardi
2
1
Vilardi
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Vilardi
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Vilardi
2
1
Vilardi
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Vilardi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (113)
56.2% (983)
-12.0%
Power Play
64.1% (39)
55.5% (254)
+8.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Vilardi is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (124).
Vilardi shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (491).
Home / Away
Vilardi
O'Reilly
Home
38.5% (39)
56.2% (697)
Away
53.1% (113)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Vilardi
O'Reilly
P1
52.6%
54.5%
P2
35.3%
55.5%
P3
61.4%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.8%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Vilardi
40.0%▼
43.5%
49.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 18:04 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 17:55 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 09:58 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 03:57 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:09 | Neutral | Gabriel Vilardi |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:22 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | Gabriel Vilardi |