Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lundeström on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lundeström wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundeström 52.2% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 58.8%
Defensive zone
Lundeström 66.5%
Neutral zone
Lundeström 54.5%
Result
Isac Lundeström favored at 56.4%
56.4%
43.6%
Lundeström
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Lundeström
O'Reilly
Last 5: Lundeström 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Lundeström
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundeström
2
1
Lundeström
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundeström
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (209)
55.4% (826)
-1.8%
Power Play
50.0% (4)
57.9% (221)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (26)
50.4% (129)
-0.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Lundeström is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (147).
Lundeström shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Lundeström
O'Reilly
Home
50.0% (136)
55.8% (579)
Away
57.3% (103)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Lundeström
O'Reilly
P1
53.2%
57.7%
P2
54.8%
54.8%
P3
51.9%
54.3%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.3%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundeström
52.0%▬
52.0%
53.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 15:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 06:05 | Defensive | Isac Lundeström |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 05:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:05 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:16 | Defensive | Isac Lundeström |