Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +13.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Lundeström wins 41.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lundeström 45.3% vs Hertl 56.8% (-13.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lundeström 63.6%
Defensive zone
Lundeström 78.1%
Neutral zone
Lundeström 73.8%
Result
Isac Lundeström favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Lundeström
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Lundeström
Hertl
Last 6: Lundeström 1-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
5
Lundeström
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lundeström
1
0
Lundeström
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lundeström
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (278)
57.0% (718)
-9.2%
Power Play
31.3% (16)
64.9% (188)
-33.6%
Penalty Kill
34.8% (92)
44.2% (77)
-9.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +33.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Lundeström is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (267).
Lundeström shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Lundeström
Hertl
Home
46.3% (190)
59.2% (463)
Away
41.8% (196)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Lundeström
Hertl
P1
40.2%
56.3%
P2
44.3%
55.4%
P3
47.4%
60.5%
Final 5 min
37.0%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lundeström
52.0%▬
52.0%
44.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2024 | 3 | 17:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 3 | 08:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 12:52 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 01:40 | Defensive | Isac Lundeström |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 13:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |