Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 52.0%). Look for Duchene on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 51.8% vs Duchene 51.6% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 71.9%
Defensive zone
Compher 68.8%
Neutral zone
Compher 62.7%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.2%
47.8%
52.2%
Compher
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Compher
Duchene
Last 10: Compher 5-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
4
Compher
Duchene
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
3
1
Compher
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Compher
1
0
Compher
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (757)
51.2% (324)
+2.7%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
60.4% (53)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (90)
16.7% (6)
+18.9%
On penalty kill, Compher has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Compher is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Compher shoots right. Duchene is 53.2% vs right-shot opponents (141).
Home / Away
Compher
Duchene
Home
52.4% (429)
51.6% (182)
Away
51.7% (449)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Compher
Duchene
P1
56.0%
49.6%
P2
50.0%
56.2%
P3
50.6%
48.6%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
52.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:07 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 03:35 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 00:25 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 10:33 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 01:37 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:57 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 07:43 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:56 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:50 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 01:38 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |