Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Compher on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Compher wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 45.6% vs Duchene 52.1% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 82.8%
Defensive zone
Duchene 55.1%
Neutral zone
Duchene 65.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Compher
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Compher
Duchene
Last 6: Compher 3-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Compher
3
0
Compher
Duchene
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Compher
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Compher
3
0
Compher
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (847)
53.0% (723)
-7.2%
Power Play
40.8% (49)
49.5% (101)
-8.7%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (117)
43.8% (16)
-1.9%
On power play, Duchene has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Compher is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (740).
Compher shoots right. Duchene is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (323).
Home / Away
Compher
Duchene
Home
45.1% (519)
54.9% (408)
Away
45.1% (494)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Compher
Duchene
P1
45.8%
52.5%
P2
46.2%
51.7%
P3
43.2%
53.6%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
41.6%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
45.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 09:28 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 09:25 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 13:12 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 10:11 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:44 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |