Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Compher wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 45.2% vs Duchene 55.6% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Compher 75.0%
Defensive zone
Compher 84.6%
Neutral zone
Compher 79.9%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 82.7%
82.7%
17.3%
Compher
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Compher
Duchene
Last 5: Compher 0-5 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
3
Compher
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
2
Compher
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (782)
56.5% (566)
-11.0%
Power Play
44.2% (77)
61.3% (62)
-17.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (180)
22.2% (9)
+19.5%
On penalty kill, Compher has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Compher is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Compher shoots right. Duchene is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Home / Away
Compher
Duchene
Home
44.0% (484)
56.6% (318)
Away
45.4% (555)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Compher
Duchene
P1
46.2%
57.2%
P2
44.8%
55.1%
P3
44.2%
55.6%
OT
25.0%
81.3%
Final 5 min
37.8%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
44.8%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:17 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 02:22 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:28 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 1 | 03:24 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |