Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 51.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 51.8% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 61.0%
Defensive zone
Compher 86.7%
Neutral zone
Compher 60.8%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 62.2%
62.2%
37.8%
Compher
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Compher
MacKinnon
Last 6: Compher 5-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Compher
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
2
0
Compher
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Compher
2
0
Compher
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (757)
50.0% (992)
+3.9%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
64.9% (148)
-10.1%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (90)
34.4% (32)
+1.2%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +10.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Compher is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (282).
Compher shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Compher
MacKinnon
Home
52.4% (429)
53.3% (591)
Away
51.7% (449)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Compher
MacKinnon
P1
56.0%
49.9%
P2
50.0%
53.2%
P3
50.6%
50.8%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
49.3%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
52.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 18:39 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 09:02 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 09:29 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |