Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 45.6% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Compher 59.5%
Defensive zone
Compher 78.6%
Neutral zone
Compher 63.7%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Compher
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Compher
MacKinnon
Last 6: Compher 1-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
3
Compher
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
1
0
Compher
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Compher
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.8% (847)
49.2% (1,266)
-3.4%
Power Play
40.8% (49)
54.9% (193)
-14.1%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (117)
49.1% (55)
-7.2%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +14.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Compher is 47.3% vs right-shot opponents (273).
Compher shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Compher
MacKinnon
Home
45.1% (519)
50.9% (740)
Away
45.1% (494)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Compher
MacKinnon
P1
45.8%
50.9%
P2
46.2%
51.8%
P3
43.2%
47.1%
OT
33.3%
58.8%
Final 5 min
41.6%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
45.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 13:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 06:41 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 15:56 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 12:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:59 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |