Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). Compher wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 45.2% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 13-5 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 55.7%
Defensive zone
Compher 65.0%
Neutral zone
Compher 54.1%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Compher
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
13
(18 meetings)
5
13
Compher
MacKinnon
Last 10: Compher 3-7 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
9
Compher
MacKinnon
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
4
2
Compher
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Compher
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (782)
45.5% (1,190)
+0.0%
Power Play
44.2% (77)
56.4% (94)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (180)
40.0% (30)
+1.7%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Compher is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Compher shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Compher
MacKinnon
Home
44.0% (484)
47.8% (670)
Away
45.4% (555)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Compher
MacKinnon
P1
46.2%
45.3%
P2
44.8%
48.5%
P3
44.2%
45.0%
OT
25.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
37.8%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
44.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 19:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:12 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 10:14 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 10:09 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 1 | 17:01 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 1 | 15:06 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:39 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 6, 2024 | 1 | 06:31 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 22, 2024 | OT | 01:23 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 06:42 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 01:09 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 18:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 1 | 01:04 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |