Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 51.3% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Compher 58.3%
Defensive zone
Compher 64.5%
Neutral zone
Compher 57.3%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Compher
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Compher
O'Reilly
Last 8: Compher 3-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
3
Compher
O'Reilly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Compher
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (471)
56.6% (1,064)
-4.4%
Power Play
65.6% (61)
60.4% (260)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (125)
54.0% (261)
-12.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +12.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Compher is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Compher shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Compher
O'Reilly
Home
54.4% (362)
54.9% (801)
Away
47.8% (295)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Compher
O'Reilly
P1
49.6%
58.0%
P2
53.6%
56.7%
P3
51.4%
55.4%
OT
57.1%
64.7%
Final 5 min
46.8%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
51.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2022 | 3 | 17:41 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 13:45 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 04:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 03:27 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 19:00 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 07:05 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 03:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 1 | 02:52 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |