Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Compher wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 45.2% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 72.3%
Defensive zone
Compher 73.4%
Neutral zone
Compher 55.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Compher
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Compher
O'Reilly
Last 10: Compher 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
4
Compher
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
2
1
Compher
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Compher
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (782)
55.0% (1,084)
-9.5%
Power Play
44.2% (77)
56.8% (303)
-12.6%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (180)
40.3% (149)
+1.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Compher is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Compher shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Compher
O'Reilly
Home
44.0% (484)
54.8% (759)
Away
45.4% (555)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Compher
O'Reilly
P1
46.2%
55.3%
P2
44.8%
51.9%
P3
44.2%
54.2%
OT
25.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
37.8%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
44.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 10:59 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 19:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 19:47 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 18:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 14:11 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 10:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 04:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2023 | OT | 00:56 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 09:06 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 14:51 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 02:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |