Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 51.8% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 66.2%
Defensive zone
Compher 60.1%
Neutral zone
Compher 50.6%
Result
J.T. Compher favored at 51.4%
51.4%
48.6%
Compher
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Compher
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Compher
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Compher
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (757)
55.4% (826)
-1.5%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
57.9% (221)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (90)
50.4% (129)
-14.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Compher is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Compher shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Compher
O'Reilly
Home
52.4% (429)
55.8% (579)
Away
51.7% (449)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Compher
O'Reilly
P1
56.0%
57.7%
P2
50.0%
54.8%
P3
50.6%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
52.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 1 | 15:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 17:11 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |