Scouting Report
J.T. Compher holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Compher wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 45.2% vs Novak 43.5% (+2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 82.1%
Defensive zone
Compher 66.4%
Neutral zone
Novak 59.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 69.9%
30.1%
69.9%
Compher
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Compher
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Compher
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
1
0
Compher
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
45.5% (782)
40.7% (460)
+4.8%
Power Play
44.2% (77)
61.5% (39)
-17.3%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (180)
0.0% (1)
+41.7%
On penalty kill, Compher has a +41.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Compher is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (750).
Compher shoots right. Novak is 41.9% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
Compher
Novak
Home
44.0% (484)
47.0% (236)
Away
45.4% (555)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Compher
Novak
P1
46.2%
43.1%
P2
44.8%
43.1%
P3
44.2%
40.1%
Final 5 min
37.8%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
44.8%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 02:14 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 05:29 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 01:06 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |