Scouting Report
J.T. Compher holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Compher wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 47.6% vs Novak 43.6% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 11-7 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 89.1%
Defensive zone
Compher 52.9%
Neutral zone
Novak 66.4%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 79.4%
20.6%
79.4%
Compher
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
11
(18 meetings)
7
11
Compher
Novak
Last 10: Compher 4-6 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
3
9
Compher
Novak
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Compher
2
0
Compher
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Compher
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (5,541)
42.2% (1,366)
+6.3%
Power Play
52.3% (664)
53.3% (120)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (1,397)
50.0% (2)
-8.0%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Compher is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,490).
Compher shoots right. Novak is 42.8% vs right-shot opponents (533).
Home / Away
Compher
Novak
Home
49.0% (3,825)
46.0% (737)
Away
46.2% (3,777)
40.3% (751)
By Period
Compher
Novak
P1
48.8%
43.9%
P2
47.2%
44.2%
P3
47.1%
40.9%
OT
39.5%
100.0%
Final 5 min
46.3%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
60.0%▲
49.0%
47.6%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 11:21 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 15:22 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 04:45 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 01:40 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 02:14 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 05:29 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 01:06 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 1 | 11:58 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 14, 2023 | 2 | 12:02 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 14, 2023 | 2 | 08:22 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 12:30 | Defensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 2 | 19:08 | Offensive | J.T. Compher |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 01:27 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |