Scouting Report
J.T. Compher holds a +10.3% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Compher 51.8% vs Novak 43.4% (+10.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 84.1%
Defensive zone
Compher 68.0%
Neutral zone
Novak 58.5%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 67.0%
33.0%
67.0%
Compher
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Compher
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Compher
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Compher
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Compher
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (757)
41.4% (379)
+12.5%
Power Play
54.8% (31)
46.9% (32)
+7.9%
On even strength, Compher has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Compher is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Compher shoots right. Novak is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Compher
Novak
Home
52.4% (429)
42.6% (195)
Away
51.7% (449)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Compher
Novak
P1
56.0%
42.4%
P2
50.0%
39.2%
P3
50.6%
44.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.3%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Compher
52.0%▼
55.5%
52.1%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:44 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | J.T. Compher |