Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (60.9% vs 60.0%). Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Miller wins 59.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 59.6% vs Kastelic 58.3% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 93.3%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 62.5%
Neutral zone
Miller 72.0%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Miller
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Miller
Kastelic
Last 8: Miller 7-1 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
4
0
Miller
Kastelic
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
1
0
Miller
Kastelic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
2
1
Miller
Kastelic
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
61.5% (540)
61.2% (340)
+0.3%
Power Play
65.6% (122)
83.3% (6)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (65)
56.0% (141)
-8.3%
On power play, Kastelic has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Miller is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (271).
Miller shoots left. Kastelic is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (405).
Home / Away
Miller
Kastelic
Home
62.1% (372)
60.9% (233)
Away
59.7% (355)
59.1% (254)
By Period
Miller
Kastelic
P1
58.9%
58.6%
P2
63.9%
58.7%
P3
59.8%
63.1%
OT
60.0%
53.8%
Final 5 min
63.6%
67.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
60.9%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
60.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:09 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:42 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 14:22 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |