Scouting Report
Mark Kastelic holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Miller wins 55.8% vs right-shot opponents — Kastelic shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.8% vs Kastelic 56.5% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Miller 87.4%
Defensive zone
Kastelic 82.4%
Neutral zone
Miller 56.9%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 70.3%
70.3%
29.7%
Miller
Kastelic
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
2
(13 meetings)
11
2
Miller
Kastelic
Last 10: Miller 9-1 Kastelic
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
6
1
Miller
Kastelic
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
1
0
Miller
Kastelic
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
4
1
Miller
Kastelic
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Kastelic
Edge
Even Strength
55.2% (6,648)
57.0% (1,613)
-1.8%
Power Play
57.9% (1,285)
80.0% (25)
-22.1%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (913)
53.6% (274)
-5.4%
On power play, Kastelic has a +22.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kastelic shoots right. Miller is 55.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,937).
Miller shoots left. Kastelic is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,420).
Home / Away
Miller
Kastelic
Home
55.9% (4,578)
58.9% (895)
Away
53.8% (4,268)
55.1% (1,017)
By Period
Miller
Kastelic
P1
54.7%
58.5%
P2
55.6%
56.9%
P3
54.0%
55.3%
OT
62.3%
53.8%
Final 5 min
55.2%
59.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.9%
Kastelic
54.0%▼
60.0%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:09 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 01:42 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 13:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 14:22 | Neutral | Mark Kastelic |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:41 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 05:21 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Feb 5, 2025 | 2 | 13:43 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 14, 2024 | 1 | 09:53 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 14:26 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 13:50 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 04:14 | Offensive | Mark Kastelic |