Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Miller wins 59.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 59.4% vs Stamkos 54.4% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 68.4%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 67.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 68.6%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 67.7%
32.3%
67.7%
Miller
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Miller
Stamkos
Last 5: Miller 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Miller
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Miller
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
61.4% (526)
55.8% (339)
+5.6%
Power Play
65.3% (118)
53.3% (90)
+12.0%
Penalty Kill
46.8% (62)
62.5% (8)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Miller is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (266).
Miller shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Miller
Stamkos
Home
61.8% (351)
53.4% (208)
Away
59.7% (355)
57.2% (229)
By Period
Miller
Stamkos
P1
58.5%
55.3%
P2
64.0%
52.5%
P3
59.6%
58.9%
OT
57.1%
62.5%
Final 5 min
63.2%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
56.0%▼
62.5%
60.8%
Stamkos
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 05:47 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 13:07 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |