Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Miller wins 59.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 59.6% vs Stamkos 54.6% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 70.5%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 69.5%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 67.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 69.9%
30.1%
69.9%
Miller
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Miller
Stamkos
Last 5: Miller 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Miller
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Miller
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
61.5% (540)
56.1% (342)
+5.4%
Power Play
65.6% (122)
53.3% (92)
+12.3%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (65)
62.5% (8)
-14.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Miller is 59.8% vs right-shot opponents (271).
Miller shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Miller
Stamkos
Home
62.1% (372)
53.4% (208)
Away
59.7% (355)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Miller
Stamkos
P1
58.9%
55.6%
P2
63.9%
52.8%
P3
59.8%
59.1%
OT
60.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
63.6%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
60.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 10:27 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 09:40 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 08:59 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 05:47 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 13:07 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |