Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Miller on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Miller wins 55.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 53.8% vs Hertl 50.7% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Miller 85.1%
Defensive zone
Miller 61.0%
Neutral zone
Miller 65.4%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 68.5%
68.5%
31.5%
Miller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Miller
Hertl
Last 7: Miller 6-1 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
2
0
Miller
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
3
1
Miller
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
1
0
Miller
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (627)
51.5% (891)
+3.4%
Power Play
53.7% (136)
54.8% (135)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (42)
41.5% (130)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Miller is 55.2% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Miller shoots left. Hertl is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (715).
Home / Away
Miller
Hertl
Home
54.7% (486)
52.6% (544)
Away
53.6% (319)
49.2% (612)
By Period
Miller
Hertl
P1
48.6%
49.4%
P2
59.6%
51.7%
P3
53.9%
51.4%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.3%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2017 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 23, 2017 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 23, 2017 | 2 | 13:45 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 23, 2017 | 2 | 10:48 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 23, 2017 | 2 | 10:41 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 23, 2017 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Oct 23, 2017 | 1 | 16:52 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |