Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.0% vs 54.8%). Look for Miller on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Miller wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 54.5% vs Hertl 54.5% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 66.3%
Defensive zone
Miller 64.0%
Neutral zone
Miller 51.3%
Result
J.T. Miller favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Miller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Miller
Hertl
Last 6: Miller 2-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Miller
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Miller
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
2
1
Miller
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (589)
54.1% (1,117)
+1.6%
Power Play
60.9% (138)
59.8% (296)
+1.1%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (159)
34.4% (32)
+12.8%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Miller is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (582).
Miller shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Miller
Hertl
Home
56.1% (440)
54.3% (709)
Away
53.8% (446)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Miller
Hertl
P1
52.3%
51.6%
P2
54.7%
53.6%
P3
57.2%
58.6%
OT
66.7%
45.5%
Final 5 min
54.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
55.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 16:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 13:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 3 | 13:13 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Mar 23, 2023 | 2 | 03:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 04:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |