Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 20 meetings). Miller wins 54.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 55.9% vs Hertl 56.8% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Miller leads 22-21 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.7%
Defensive zone
Hertl 55.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Miller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
21
(43 meetings)
22
21
Miller
Hertl
Last 10: Miller 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
12
Miller
Hertl
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
8
4
Miller
Hertl
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Miller
6
5
Miller
Hertl
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.3% (1,033)
57.0% (718)
-0.7%
Power Play
62.5% (253)
64.9% (188)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (175)
44.2% (77)
+3.2%
On penalty kill, Miller has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Miller is 54.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
Miller shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Miller
Hertl
Home
58.6% (734)
59.2% (463)
Away
54.1% (727)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Miller
Hertl
P1
57.1%
56.3%
P2
57.0%
55.4%
P3
54.7%
60.5%
OT
62.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
56.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:46 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2024 | 3 | 10:46 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 18:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 17:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 15:43 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 15:40 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:11 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 15:38 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 13:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 11:08 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 05:40 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 05:37 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 00:17 | Neutral | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 15:14 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 3 | 12:56 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |