Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Miller wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 53.8% vs Hertl 52.3% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.2%
Defensive zone
Miller 52.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.6%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Miller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Miller
Hertl
Last 10: Miller 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Miller
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Miller
3
2
Miller
Hertl
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (933)
51.6% (1,084)
+3.9%
Power Play
61.6% (73)
61.0% (246)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
45.8% (227)
44.1% (136)
+1.7%
On even strength, Miller has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Miller is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (769).
Miller shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Miller
Hertl
Home
53.5% (578)
55.2% (696)
Away
54.7% (655)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Miller
Hertl
P1
58.3%
55.4%
P2
53.5%
54.8%
P3
50.1%
48.9%
OT
70.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
54.9%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
54.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 9, 2022 | 3 | 10:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 19:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 2 | 14:30 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 16:20 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 09:34 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 06:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 02:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 3 | 11:39 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 1 | 09:05 | Defensive | J.T. Miller |