Scouting Report
J.T. Miller holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Miller wins 61.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Miller 59.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.3%
Defensive zone
Miller 71.4%
Neutral zone
Miller 59.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Miller
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Miller
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Miller
1
0
Miller
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Miller
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
61.5% (540)
58.1% (823)
+3.4%
Power Play
65.6% (122)
56.2% (265)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
47.7% (65)
62.9% (35)
-15.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Miller is 61.7% vs left-shot opponents (454).
Miller shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Miller
Hertl
Home
62.1% (372)
59.7% (561)
Away
59.7% (355)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Miller
Hertl
P1
58.9%
51.6%
P2
63.9%
63.8%
P3
59.8%
58.6%
OT
60.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
63.6%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Miller
62.0%▬
61.5%
60.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2025 | 1 | 14:09 | Offensive | J.T. Miller |