Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +16.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Hughes 36.6% (+16.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 18-6 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 85.9%
Defensive zone
Larkin 99.0%
Neutral zone
Larkin 97.1%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 93.0%
93.0%
7.0%
Larkin
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
6
(24 meetings)
18
6
Larkin
Hughes
Last 10: Larkin 7-3 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
5
5
Larkin
Hughes
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
0
Larkin
Hughes
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
6
1
Larkin
Hughes
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
36.0% (2,887)
+15.7%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
38.8% (224)
+19.7%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
31.0% (42)
+19.2%
On power play, Larkin has a +19.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,850).
Larkin shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hughes
Home
54.0% (6,238)
36.8% (1,670)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
35.4% (1,483)
By Period
Larkin
Hughes
P1
52.7%
36.9%
P2
53.1%
33.6%
P3
52.1%
38.1%
OT
58.4%
37.5%
Final 5 min
53.2%
34.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 3 | 04:23 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 2 | 16:49 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 13:12 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 10:10 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 29, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:42 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:18 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 17:01 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 13:46 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 10:39 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 08:09 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 03:29 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 13:55 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 14:53 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 10:16 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 3 | 06:49 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 03:50 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 15, 2022 | 2 | 01:02 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |