Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 37.0% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.2% vs Evans 52.6% (-15.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 93.2%
Defensive zone
Evans 61.8%
Neutral zone
Hughes 79.1%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Hughes
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hughes
Evans
Last 5: Hughes 1-4 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Evans
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Evans
0
3
Hughes
Evans
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
0
1
Hughes
Evans
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (623)
54.4% (824)
-16.5%
Power Play
33.3% (33)
66.7% (9)
-33.4%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
48.1% (289)
-11.7%
On power play, Evans has a +33.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Hughes is 37.0% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Hughes shoots left. Evans is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (838).
Home / Away
Hughes
Evans
Home
36.6% (314)
55.1% (541)
Away
38.5% (353)
50.8% (581)
By Period
Hughes
Evans
P1
36.4%
51.8%
P2
35.6%
53.3%
P3
41.8%
53.8%
OT
0.0%
38.5%
Final 5 min
36.4%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 13:24 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:51 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 18:50 | Defensive | Jake Evans |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 1 | 00:52 | Neutral | Jake Evans |