Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (62% H2H, 13 meetings). Hughes wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs Hayes 47.7% (-11.6%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 12-10 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 74.1%
Defensive zone
Hayes 73.4%
Neutral zone
Hughes 61.8%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 62.5%
62.5%
37.5%
Hughes
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
12
(22 meetings)
10
12
Hughes
Hayes
Last 10: Hughes 3-7 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
4
3
Hughes
Hayes
7 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Hayes
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
5
8
Hughes
Hayes
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
47.5% (6,708)
-11.5%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
51.7% (702)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
45.3% (697)
-14.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Hughes is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,931).
Hughes shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Home / Away
Hughes
Hayes
Home
36.8% (1,670)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Hughes
Hayes
P1
36.9%
47.5%
P2
33.6%
47.6%
P3
38.1%
47.9%
OT
37.5%
54.1%
Final 5 min
34.2%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 13:08 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:26 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 8, 2021 | 2 | 17:51 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| May 10, 2021 | 3 | 12:25 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| May 1, 2021 | 3 | 18:42 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 09:47 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 3 | 09:41 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 25, 2021 | 3 | 18:56 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 25, 2021 | 3 | 13:22 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 28, 2021 | 1 | 07:11 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 26, 2021 | 2 | 08:29 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 3 | 17:33 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 3 | 14:23 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 3 | 11:10 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 3 | 07:20 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 1 | 11:21 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 1 | 01:14 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 9, 2019 | 1 | 19:42 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |