Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 37.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.2% vs Hayes 51.7% (-14.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 54.0%
Defensive zone
Hayes 83.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 77.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 77.3%
22.7%
77.3%
Hughes
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Hughes
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (623)
51.6% (386)
-13.7%
Power Play
33.3% (33)
53.2% (47)
-19.9%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
60.0% (20)
-23.6%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Hughes is 37.9% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Hughes shoots left. Hayes is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Hughes
Hayes
Home
36.6% (314)
50.5% (200)
Away
38.5% (353)
53.4% (253)
By Period
Hughes
Hayes
P1
36.4%
58.8%
P2
35.6%
49.3%
P3
41.8%
48.0%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
36.4%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2025 | 2 | 09:14 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |