Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 35.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.9% vs Hayes 49.5% (-14.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 59.1%
Defensive zone
Hayes 56.3%
Neutral zone
Hughes 52.2%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Hughes
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Hughes
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Hayes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
2
Hughes
Hayes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
34.9% (444)
48.5% (557)
-13.6%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
53.3% (107)
-3.3%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
58.3% (12)
-25.0%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Hughes is 35.4% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Hughes shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Hughes
Hayes
Home
37.4% (235)
50.8% (313)
Away
33.2% (229)
48.2% (363)
By Period
Hughes
Hayes
P1
37.1%
52.3%
P2
33.7%
47.7%
P3
34.8%
48.4%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
32.7%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 13:08 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 00:26 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |