Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hughes wins 44.7% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 40.3% vs Barzal 41.4% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 51.4%
Defensive zone
Barzal 53.9%
Neutral zone
Hughes 58.8%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 58.8%
58.8%
41.2%
Hughes
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Hughes
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
3
Hughes
Barzal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
35.1% (151)
40.4% (456)
-5.3%
Power Play
16.7% (6)
34.2% (38)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
28.6% (7)
+4.7%
On power play, Barzal has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Hughes is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (47).
Hughes shoots left. Barzal is 38.8% vs left-shot opponents (389).
Home / Away
Hughes
Barzal
Home
32.4% (74)
38.0% (242)
Away
36.0% (89)
41.3% (259)
By Period
Hughes
Barzal
P1
38.8%
46.6%
P2
27.6%
35.4%
P3
36.8%
38.0%
Final 5 min
29.6%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
34.0%▼
36.5%
34.4%
Barzal
40.0%▼
44.5%
39.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 03:26 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |