Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (35.3% vs 35.6%). Hughes wins 35.2% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.9% vs Barzal 39.3% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barzal 51.2%
Defensive zone
Hughes 50.5%
Neutral zone
Hughes 51.8%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Hughes
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Hughes
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Hughes
Barzal
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hughes
Barzal
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
34.9% (444)
35.0% (283)
-0.1%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
55.6% (9)
-5.6%
On power play, Barzal has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Hughes is 35.2% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Hughes shoots left. Barzal is 39.0% vs left-shot opponents (210).
Home / Away
Hughes
Barzal
Home
37.4% (235)
37.0% (138)
Away
33.2% (229)
34.4% (154)
By Period
Hughes
Barzal
P1
37.1%
29.5%
P2
33.7%
44.5%
P3
34.8%
31.8%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
32.7%
39.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
35.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 00:54 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 15:28 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:38 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |