Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hughes wins 41.1% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.8% vs Barzal 41.4% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 53.0%
Defensive zone
Barzal 59.7%
Neutral zone
Hughes 60.3%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 60.3%
60.3%
39.7%
Hughes
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Hughes
Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
3
Hughes
Barzal
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
36.8% (266)
40.4% (463)
-3.6%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
34.2% (38)
-19.9%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
28.6% (7)
+4.7%
On power play, Barzal has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Hughes is 41.1% vs right-shot opponents (90).
Hughes shoots left. Barzal is 38.9% vs left-shot opponents (393).
Home / Away
Hughes
Barzal
Home
35.1% (148)
38.1% (244)
Away
37.4% (131)
41.3% (264)
By Period
Hughes
Barzal
P1
43.0%
46.6%
P2
28.7%
35.7%
P3
35.2%
37.7%
Final 5 min
28.6%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.2%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
39.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 13:19 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 03:26 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |