Scouting Report
Mathew Barzal holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 39.5% vs right-shot opponents — Barzal shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.4% vs Barzal 44.9% (-8.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 70.4%
Defensive zone
Hughes 68.5%
Neutral zone
Hughes 67.0%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 68.6%
68.6%
31.4%
Hughes
Barzal
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hughes
Barzal
Last 5: Hughes 1-4 Barzal
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Hughes
Barzal
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
2
Hughes
Barzal
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Barzal
0
1
Hughes
Barzal
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Barzal
Edge
Even Strength
35.7% (569)
43.3% (314)
-7.6%
Power Play
33.3% (36)
45.5% (33)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
33.3% (3)
-16.6%
On penalty kill, Barzal has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barzal shoots right. Hughes is 39.5% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Hughes shoots left. Barzal is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (204).
Home / Away
Hughes
Barzal
Home
37.8% (333)
39.9% (168)
Away
32.4% (278)
46.7% (182)
By Period
Hughes
Barzal
P1
38.8%
39.0%
P2
28.3%
49.1%
P3
38.6%
43.3%
OT
42.9%
25.0%
Final 5 min
31.7%
30.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.4%
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
43.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2021 | 3 | 12:22 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 3 | 09:44 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 13, 2021 | 3 | 08:16 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 2 | 17:25 | Neutral | Mathew Barzal |
| Jan 21, 2021 | 1 | 07:32 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |