Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +15.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 41.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.8% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-15.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 86.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 81.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 70.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 80.2%
19.8%
80.2%
Hughes
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Hughes
MacKinnon
Last 6: Hughes 4-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
1
Hughes
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Hughes
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
0
Hughes
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
36.8% (266)
50.0% (992)
-13.2%
Power Play
14.3% (7)
64.9% (148)
-50.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
34.4% (32)
-1.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +50.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hughes is 41.1% vs right-shot opponents (90).
Hughes shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Hughes
MacKinnon
Home
35.1% (148)
53.3% (591)
Away
37.4% (131)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Hughes
MacKinnon
P1
43.0%
49.9%
P2
28.7%
53.2%
P3
35.2%
50.8%
Final 5 min
28.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 02:58 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:05 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 03:49 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |