Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Hughes wins 37.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.2% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-12.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-5 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 66.7%
Defensive zone
Hughes 60.5%
Neutral zone
Hughes 63.9%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 64.0%
64.0%
36.0%
Hughes
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
8
(13 meetings)
5
8
Hughes
MacKinnon
Last 10: Hughes 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Hughes
MacKinnon
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Hughes
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
4
Hughes
MacKinnon
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (623)
49.2% (1,266)
-11.3%
Power Play
33.3% (33)
54.9% (193)
-21.6%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
49.1% (55)
-12.7%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +21.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hughes is 37.0% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Hughes shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Hughes
MacKinnon
Home
36.6% (314)
50.9% (740)
Away
38.5% (353)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Hughes
MacKinnon
P1
36.4%
50.9%
P2
35.6%
51.8%
P3
41.8%
47.1%
OT
0.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
36.4%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:39 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 11:19 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 08:40 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 08:28 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 06:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 00:45 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:51 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 1 | 08:54 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 1 | 01:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 12:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |