Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 35.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 38.0% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (-10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 66.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 60.4%
Neutral zone
Hughes 53.4%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Hughes
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Hughes
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Hughes
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
34.5% (342)
45.8% (755)
-11.3%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
48.3% (60)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
27.6% (29)
-2.6%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hughes is 35.7% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Hughes shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Hughes
MacKinnon
Home
32.6% (187)
49.5% (396)
Away
36.7% (166)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Hughes
MacKinnon
P1
33.9%
50.2%
P2
34.2%
43.8%
P3
36.5%
41.4%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
29.7%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
34.6%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2022 | 1 | 14:27 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |