Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 35.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.9% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 78.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 57.6%
Neutral zone
Hughes 69.7%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Hughes
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Hughes
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Hughes
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
34.9% (444)
44.7% (1,053)
-9.8%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
36.8% (95)
+13.2%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
65.0% (20)
-31.7%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +31.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hughes is 35.2% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Hughes shoots left. MacKinnon is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Hughes
MacKinnon
Home
37.4% (235)
49.4% (553)
Away
33.2% (229)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Hughes
MacKinnon
P1
37.1%
45.3%
P2
33.7%
42.7%
P3
34.8%
45.1%
OT
100.0%
46.2%
Final 5 min
32.7%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 01:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 01:07 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |