Jack Hughes vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (64% H2H, 11 meetings). Hughes wins 38.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.6% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 78.4%
Defensive zone
Hughes 78.0%
Neutral zone
Hughes 72.8%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
Hughes
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Hughes
MacKinnon
Last 10: Hughes 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
4
3
Hughes
MacKinnon
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Hughes
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
7
Hughes
MacKinnon
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
36.0% (2,887)
46.1% (11,218)
-10.1%
Power Play
38.8% (224)
53.3% (1,412)
-14.5%
Penalty Kill
31.0% (42)
42.8% (502)
-11.8%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,222).
Hughes shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Hughes
MacKinnon
Home
36.8% (1,670)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
35.4% (1,483)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Hughes
MacKinnon
P1
36.9%
47.4%
P2
33.6%
46.6%
P3
38.1%
46.1%
OT
37.5%
48.4%
Final 5 min
34.2%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 28, 2025 | 3 | 13:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 12:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 2 | 02:58 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 04:05 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 28, 2025 | 1 | 03:49 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 26, 2025 | 2 | 10:31 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 14:14 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 13:39 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 11:19 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 08:40 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 08:28 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 06:37 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 01:01 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 3 | 00:45 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:51 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 1 | 08:54 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 26, 2025 | 1 | 01:24 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 12:30 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 01:13 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |