Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Hughes wins 41.4% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 40.3% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (-9.0%)
Offensive zone
Hughes 70.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 76.8%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 57.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Hughes
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
35.6% (281)
45.5% (1,190)
-9.9%
Power Play
50.0% (36)
56.4% (94)
-6.4%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +9.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hughes is 41.4% vs right-shot opponents (111).
Hughes shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Hughes
MacKinnon
Home
38.4% (198)
47.8% (670)
Away
35.3% (119)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Hughes
MacKinnon
P1
44.3%
45.3%
P2
34.2%
48.5%
P3
34.0%
45.0%
Final 5 min
40.4%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%