Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +20.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (88% H2H, 16 meetings). Hughes wins 39.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.4% vs Dowd 55.5% (-20.9%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 23-9 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 98.4%
Defensive zone
Hughes 86.6%
Neutral zone
Hughes 95.2%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 93.5%
93.5%
6.5%
Hughes
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
23
(32 meetings)
9
23
Hughes
Dowd
Last 10: Hughes 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
7
0
Hughes
Dowd
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
9
Hughes
Dowd
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
14
Hughes
Dowd
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
35.7% (569)
58.2% (617)
-22.5%
Power Play
33.3% (36)
71.4% (7)
-38.1%
Penalty Kill
16.7% (6)
47.2% (144)
-30.5%
On power play, Dowd has a +38.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hughes is 39.5% vs right-shot opponents (306).
Hughes shoots left. Dowd is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Hughes
Dowd
Home
37.8% (333)
58.4% (399)
Away
32.4% (278)
53.9% (369)
By Period
Hughes
Dowd
P1
38.8%
59.0%
P2
28.3%
56.1%
P3
38.6%
54.6%
OT
42.9%
33.3%
Final 5 min
31.7%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2021 | 3 | 14:48 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 1 | 15:32 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 4, 2021 | 1 | 10:11 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 2, 2021 | OT | 00:47 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 2, 2021 | 1 | 06:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 3 | 15:28 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 26, 2021 | 3 | 15:14 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 3 | 12:06 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 3 | 01:54 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 11:47 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 09:41 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2 | 03:55 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 16:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 1 | 01:23 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 3 | 15:15 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 17:31 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2021 | 1 | 01:20 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 28, 2021 | 3 | 12:00 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Feb 28, 2021 | 2 | 00:55 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 28, 2021 | 1 | 16:47 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |