Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +15.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Hughes wins 35.2% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.9% vs Dowd 50.7% (-15.5%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 95.7%
Defensive zone
Dowd 69.8%
Neutral zone
Hughes 79.3%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Hughes
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Hughes
Dowd
Last 10: Hughes 3-7 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
0
Hughes
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
5
Hughes
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
2
Hughes
Dowd
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
34.9% (444)
55.2% (625)
-20.3%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
57.1% (7)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
38.2% (220)
-4.9%
On even strength, Dowd has a +20.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hughes is 35.2% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Hughes shoots left. Dowd is 50.3% vs left-shot opponents (557).
Home / Away
Hughes
Dowd
Home
37.4% (235)
53.7% (445)
Away
33.2% (229)
47.7% (407)
By Period
Hughes
Dowd
P1
37.1%
48.8%
P2
33.7%
49.3%
P3
34.8%
54.0%
OT
100.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
32.7%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 15:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 06:03 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 3 | 03:35 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 2 | 00:38 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 18:41 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 04:42 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 9, 2023 | 1 | 00:43 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 14:10 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 1 | 08:17 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 24, 2022 | 3 | 02:16 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |