Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +19.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 35.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 38.0% vs Dowd 53.3% (-19.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 86.3%
Defensive zone
Dowd 84.7%
Neutral zone
Dowd 56.0%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Hughes
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Hughes
Dowd
Last 7: Hughes 3-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
3
0
Hughes
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Hughes
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Hughes
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
34.5% (342)
55.4% (771)
-20.9%
Power Play
42.9% (7)
57.1% (7)
-14.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
45.5% (165)
-20.5%
On even strength, Dowd has a +20.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hughes is 35.7% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Hughes shoots left. Dowd is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Home / Away
Hughes
Dowd
Home
32.6% (187)
58.2% (462)
Away
36.7% (166)
49.3% (481)
By Period
Hughes
Dowd
P1
33.9%
55.6%
P2
34.2%
50.5%
P3
36.5%
53.9%
OT
0.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
29.7%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
34.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2022 | OT | 01:13 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 17:40 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 10:20 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:34 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:22 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 1 | 15:04 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |