Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 28 meetings). Hughes wins 37.7% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 36.4% vs Dowd 50.7% (-14.7%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 52-22 in 74 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 97.7%
Defensive zone
Hughes 99.5%
Neutral zone
Hughes 97.8%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 98.4%
98.4%
1.6%
Hughes
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
52
(74 meetings)
22
52
Hughes
Dowd
Last 10: Hughes 2-8 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
16
0
Hughes
Dowd
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
28
Hughes
Dowd
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
6
24
Hughes
Dowd
30 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
35.8% (3,022)
52.4% (6,097)
-16.6%
Power Play
38.5% (226)
56.0% (166)
-17.5%
Penalty Kill
32.6% (43)
44.2% (1,646)
-11.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +17.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hughes is 37.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,297).
Hughes shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,213).
Home / Away
Hughes
Dowd
Home
36.8% (1,736)
51.9% (3,947)
Away
35.0% (1,555)
49.6% (3,963)
By Period
Hughes
Dowd
P1
36.6%
51.6%
P2
33.2%
50.4%
P3
38.3%
50.4%
OT
37.5%
45.2%
Final 5 min
33.8%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
26.0%▼
34.0%
36.0%
Dowd
58.0%▲
51.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:15 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 10:56 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 09:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 15:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 12:13 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 14:34 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 01:35 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 05:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 05:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 18:58 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 13:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 12:46 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 06:27 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 00:53 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 16:05 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |