Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +12.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Hughes wins 37.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 39.2% vs Dowd 49.9% (-12.3%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 97.6%
Defensive zone
Hughes 61.2%
Neutral zone
Hughes 86.7%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Hughes
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
9
(12 meetings)
3
9
Hughes
Dowd
Last 10: Hughes 2-8 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
0
Hughes
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
5
Hughes
Dowd
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
4
Hughes
Dowd
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
37.9% (623)
52.2% (835)
-14.3%
Power Play
33.3% (33)
60.0% (10)
-26.7%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
44.0% (350)
-7.6%
On power play, Dowd has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hughes is 37.0% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Hughes shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Hughes
Dowd
Home
36.6% (314)
51.5% (619)
Away
38.5% (353)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Hughes
Dowd
P1
36.4%
51.7%
P2
35.6%
51.6%
P3
41.8%
47.0%
OT
0.0%
22.2%
Final 5 min
36.4%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
37.6%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | 3 | 04:15 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 2 | 10:56 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 30, 2024 | 1 | 16:26 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 09:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 07:08 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 15:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 12:13 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 14:34 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 01:35 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:38 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 1 | 05:01 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |