Scouting Report
Noah Cates holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Cates on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Hughes wins 35.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hughes 37.9% vs Cates 40.4% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hughes 76.7%
Defensive zone
Cates 80.2%
Neutral zone
Cates 51.4%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Hughes
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Hughes
Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
0
Hughes
Cates
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Cates
1
2
Hughes
Cates
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hughes
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
34.9% (444)
40.4% (841)
-5.5%
Power Play
50.0% (14)
42.4% (66)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (6)
32.7% (147)
+0.6%
On power play, Hughes has a +7.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Hughes is 35.4% vs left-shot opponents (285).
Hughes shoots left. Cates is 39.3% vs left-shot opponents (749).
Home / Away
Hughes
Cates
Home
37.4% (235)
38.2% (566)
Away
33.2% (229)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Hughes
Cates
P1
37.1%
40.5%
P2
33.7%
42.4%
P3
34.8%
35.3%
OT
100.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
32.7%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
35.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2023 | 3 | 04:05 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 3 | 01:31 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 1 | 06:38 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |